MLB: Basic Prognostication

I might go into these races a bit more over the course of the next couple weeks, but I'd like to cover the broad brush strokes for how I expect the playoff and award races to go.

NL East

1. Philadelphia

2. Atlanta

3. New York

4. Florida

5. Washington

This is a division that is potentially loaded. Philadelphia is the closest thing you'll find to a sure-thing, and I think they balance arguably the division's best staff with arguably baseball's best lineup. Atlanta has a starting rotation that could be scary good, but McCann needs help; even Albert Pujols would have trouble producing runs with that group. The Mets are the Mets, Florida is too dependent on young pitching to overcome an iffy lineup , and it's just one year early to call for a surprise Nationals run, something I tentatively plan to do next March.

(Side-note: Nats star Ryan Zimmerman and Rays stud Evan Longoria are ludicrously similar. Last year they had respective lines of .292/.364/.525 and .281/.364/.526. Both hit 33 home runs. Both have glittering defensive reputations backed up by the stats. Considering that some people think Longoria is fast overtaking A-Rod as the game's top man at the hot corner, Zimmerman deserves some love, too. After all, they're practically twins.)

NL Central

1. St. Louis

2. Chicago

3. Houston

4. Cincinnati

5. Milwaukee

6. Pittsburgh

This division has too many teams with playoff upside (in addition to having too many teams, period). Like most, I expect St. Louis to win the division, as they have the best player in the league and a good supporting cast with guys like Holliday, Molina, and the exciting young Rasmus, and they have good-to-great starting pitching. I'm probably ranking Chicago too high, but I'm a big fan of the corner infield combo of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, and they've got a rotation that could be sneaky good. I'm giving Houston points because Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Oswalt aren't done yet, and there are some young talents like Hunter Pence that could make a run. If any team is going to steal this division from St. Louis, the Astros might have the best chance. Cincy has a potentially deadly staff, but Joey Votto is only allowed to hit once every nine batters. Milwaukee might deserve better than this, but it's a tough division and it's got a very iffy pitching staff. Two great mashers, Fielder and Braun, can't win more than 75 games without help. Pittsburgh will continue to be everybody's Quadruple-A team, although I love Andrew McCutchen.

NL West

1. Los Angeles

2. Colorado (Wild Card)

3. San Francisco

4. Arizona

5. San Diego

The Dodgers have a great young hitting corps and some fine pitchers, so they'll make it three in a row. I wanted to put Arizona at number two and potentially the wild card, but they'll need Webb in order to create the game's best one-two punch with Haren. They've got good young hitters, but Webb's health is too big a concern. Colorado has a Cy Young contender in Jimenez (people still get scared by Coors, but the humidor has mellowed it a lot) and some awesome young players in Tulowitzki and Seth Smith, so I think they're the wild card favorite going in, and could push the Dodgers. San Francisco has one of the league's best one-two starting combos in Lincecum and Cain, but Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval is their only hitter who seems to understand the concept of offense. San Diego has a similar situation, but they substitute bad pitching for good pitching. And if you've got bad pitching in Petco, you deserve last place.

AL East

1. New York

2. Boston (Wild Card)

3. Tampa Bay

4. Baltimore

5. Toronto

This will again be baseball's most cutthroat division, as we could be looking at three 90-win teams. The Yankees will score oodles of runs and their pitching is good enough. (Funny thing about the Yankees: Rodriguez is the only guy who even might be baseball's best at his position, and yet this is a lineup that could score 900 runs.) Boston will probably do a better job at run prevention than anyone else in the baseball, as their staff is loaded and their defense excellent. They'll be about as good offensively as they were last year - and that's pretty good - and they'll be right in the thick of the best in the Majors discussion all year long. I gave the edge to the Yankees because they can handle an injury to their lineup better than Boston can, and pitching is always the hardest thing to count on. I think both teams get in the playoffs, though. Tampa has loads of talented youngsters, but you're better off banking on the established stars in the Northeast. Baltimore may have two of the division's top three outfielders in Markakis and Jones, and a wonderful catcher in Wieters, but too many pieces have to fall into place for them to make a run at more than .500. Toronto is rebuilding, which is unfortunate for studs like Adam Lind.

AL Central

1. Minnesota

2. Detroit

3. Chicago

4. Cleveland

5. Kansas City

The loss of closer extraordinaire Joe Nathan really hurts the Twins - you ain't replacing 65+ superb innings at the drop of a hat - but Ron Gardenhire will do what he always does: pull wins out from a magical top hat. It also helps when you've got lineup talents like Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, and Span and you play in a relatively weak division. I like Detroit's starting pitching an awful lot - though I have a problem with young Max Scherzer I'll be writing about soon - and Miggy Cabrera is a wonderful masher. You'll be hard pressed to find a lineup more dependent on the long ball than Chicago, but they're in a good park for it and have a potentially good rotation. Cleveland has Grady Sizemore and that's about it, but somehow it will continue to outperform the lowly Royals. The weird thing about the Royals is they have three remarkable youngsters in Greinke, Soria, and Butler (and a solid one in Alberto Callapso), and yet they are so terribly bad everywhere else that it doesn't matter. Royals fans must comfort themselves with the knowledge that their three stars will make some fantasy baseball players very happy.

AL West

1. Texas

2. Seattle

3. Los Angeles

4. Oakland

This is a very intriguing race, as three teams are very much in the mix and the fourth has tremendous potential. They could all end up within ten games of each other, which would be remarkable. I'm picking Texas to win because they've got better balance than any other team in this division. They still scored runs despite injuries and bad luck last year, and they should easily be the division's best run producer. They've also got a deep rotation that's got enough talent that some of it will do well, and they've got such a great farm system that they'll be able to handle injuries better than most. Seattle has a wonderful one-two in King Felix and Cliff Lee, they've got a great defense, and while offense is a concern, guys like Franklin Gutierrez and Jose Lopez are much better than they're given credit for. The Angels really don't deserve this third-place listing, but I just can't see them scoring 883 runs again, and they have neither an ace nor a stopper in the bullpen. Oakland has too many ifs, but they've got some young talents who could be very productive.

NL MVP

Albert Pujols will be the league's best player - does that even need to be said? - but I really think the writers will try to get some variety unless Pujols wins that Triple Crown he's been threatening. If the Phillies establish themselves clearly as the National League's best team, Chase Utley will have that going for him, but Matt Kemp might well hit .300, pull off the magical 30-30 homers and steals feat, and win a Gold Glove playing center field for the big-time Los Angeles Dodgers. That's why he's my pick.

AL MVP

Much like the National League, there really shouldn't be any doubt about who the best player actually is: Joe Mauer. I think he's got an excellent chance at repeating, especially since he's now got the "led his team to the the playoffs despite major injury to star player" thing going for him. There are other contenders, though. Anybody in Boston or New York, obviously, but I rather like Ian Kinsler to win. He was badly unlucky last year, hitting just .253 due to his ridiculously low batting average on balls in play. That stat usually corrects itself, and Bill James projects that he'll hit 27 home runs, drive in 106 runs, bat .275, and steal 28 bases. Considering he plays very good defense at a premium position and could be the leader on a division-winning club, I like his odds. As a Sox fan and Pedroia nut, it pains me to write all that. (Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler, Cano ... these are some awesome second baseman we have nowadays.)

NL Cy Young

We may have a Randy Johnson-type stranglehold on the Cy Young developing for ol' Tim Lincecum - a great player that I've never much liked, unfortunately - even though Dan Haren is awfully close to being that division's best pitcher. In addition to those two, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, and Ubaldo Jimenez are also contenders. I'll give the edge to Halladay on the premise that he'll get a healthy bump due to the weaker National League lineups and probably snag 20 wins when you combine that potent lineup with his admirable ability to go deep into games.

AL Cy Young

Zack Greinke is my personal pick for best pitcher in the Major Leagues, and I have little doubt that he'll have another great season for that terrible franchise in the great town of Kansas City. However, I just can't see the writers going to the pitcher on a 60-win team two years in a row, no matter how awesome he is. Don't forget, these people gave the 2005 Cy Young to Bartolo Colon rather than Johan Santana. It won't be quite such a travesty though, as you've got excellent guys like Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, and C.C. Sabathia pitching for potential playoff teams. Lester will be the ace on the Major's best staff, and I expect he'll push the league lead in wins, strikeouts, and ERA, so he's my guy.

What? You didn't seriously think my picks would be completely unbiased, did you?

Pitching: Halladay and Lee

As always, pitchers were the dominant focus of the offseason. Sure, you had the Jason Bay saga - the Mets will like him and the Red Sox won't miss him, but more on that another day - but I'd say that guys like John Lackey, Justin Verlander, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, and Cliff Lee were the biggest stories. Lackey signed with my Red Sox for $82.5 million over five years. Verlander and the Tigers agreed to an $80m/5yr contract extension. Lincecum, probably worried about his Karma, chickened out of an arbitration hearing he surely would have won, and settled for a $23m/2yr deal with the Giants. Lee and Halladay were involved in the big trade that sent Halladay to Philly and shipped Lee off to join Hernandez in Seattle. Hernandez, for his part, was also signed to a five-year deal worth about $80m.

(I'm not quite sure what's up with the similarity of the deals, as I don't think anybody would seriously suggest that Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and John Lackey - or A.J. Burnett, if we stretch back a year - are interchangeable. Maybe there's a Big Name Pitcher Contract template, and all the general managers are just too lazy to change the figures.)

In this first blog entry, I'd like to talk about the biggest deal of them all: the Halladay-Lee Trade. In the minds of some, it was a lateral move - exchanging one ace for another ace. In the minds of others, it was a step backwards - exchanging a proven postseason star for an older pitcher with no playoff experience and some past injuries. In my mind, however, the Phillies made a championship-caliber move. Any time you're in the hunt for a title and you have an opportunity to upgrade your rotation by even a little bit, you have to do it, and Halladay is a better pitcher than Lee (and most every other pitcher in baseball) by a fairly sizable margin. The Phillies came awfully close to winning the World Series last year, and they're a better team with Halladay than with Lee. Certainly they'd be better with both of them than with only one, but we have to assume that the Phillies felt they couldn't make that happen, and it's not unreasonable to give the defending National League Champions the benefit of a doubt.

Let's dismiss the criticisms against Halladay first. He's only about 15 months older than Lee. Given the state of modern training, that's practically nothing when you're talking about guys in their early 30s. He also hasn't had injury problems since 2005, and that's despite leading the league in complete games three straight years and finishing in the top four in innings pitched four straight years. Halladay is no more an injury risk than any other player. He's even a lesser risk than Lee, given recent reports about bone spurs in the Southpaw Lee's push-off leg. While the bone spurs aren't major in and of themselves, they can be a persistent problem no matter how good your surgeon is, and better pitchers than Lee have been ended by foot pain. See: Dean, Dizzy.

Sometimes people forget just how good Halladay really is. I know I do. Here in Boston, you hear far more about (the admittedly promising) Clay Buchholz than you do about the former Toronto ace. Much like Arizona's Dan Haren - a guy who has to be in the Major's best pitcher discussion, by the way - Halladay has simply put up superb numbers for mediocre teams in some random corner of the continent. Halladay's got fantastic complete game and shutout figures, and his winning percentage of .661 is incredible for anyone, let alone someone on at most the third-best team in his division. Let's focus in on WHIP, and see what it has to say. Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched (WHIP) is a great number to look at since pitchers have a great deal of control over their walk rates and over how much good contact batters make. It isn't perfect, but if you ranked pitchers strictly by WHIP, you'd get much closer to an accurate pecking order than you would by looking at traditional metrics such as ERA or strikeouts. It's also an easy number to scale. The best pitchers have whips in the 1.0-1.1 range. The league average is about 1.4. Since 2003, Halladay has either led or been second in the American League in WHIP four times, all while pitching in this decade's toughest division. He was also on pace to lead the league in 2005 before getting hurt.

Then there's the consistency factor. The former Indian is only two years removed from a 5-8 record and a WHIP over 1.5, while Halladay has essentially been the same pitcher since 2001. Comparing their careers year-by-year, it's interesting to note that Halladay has always finished with a better WHIP than Lee. Yes, that includes Cliff Lee's Cy Young year. (That was a prize he undoubtedly deserved, though I'd say it would have been just as fair for Halladay, the runner-up, to win.) In fact, Halladay's career WHIP of 1.198 is less than a tenth of a point behind Cliff Lee's best season. Neither guy has been a strikeout king, but Halladay has been top 5 three times, while Lee has only been top 10 once. When you look at any of their rates (hits, walks, home runs, strikeouts, strikeouts-to-walks), Halladay has a clear advantage. Really, no matter what metric you use in direct comparison, Halladay has peaked higher, and his averages are as good as Lee's best.

Now let's criticize Cliff Lee. Not really because he deserves it; mostly because I liked looking up the stats. His full season WHIP ranked thirtieth in the Majors. 30th. As in worse than 29 other guys. I don't believe in strict guidelines, but a good rule of thumb is that when a Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher named Ross Ohlendorf is ranked five places ahead of you, you aren't better than one of the decade's elite pitchers. Don't get me wrong. I'd love for my team to have him. I certainly think Seattle has one of the deadliest one-two combinations in baseball ... but there really shouldn't be any doubt about whether Lee is playing the part of Koufax or the part of Drysdale.

It seems pretty clear to me that of the two, Halladay is the better option. While Lee pitched great in the postseason, we have to remember that only a year prior, Cole Hamels was the Fall Classic star. The terrible October he had in '09 should serve as a warning to all those who put too much stock in short series performances. I mean that not as a criticism of Hamels - he's only 26 and he's had several fine seasons and just one pretty unlucky one. I simply don't think we should anoint Lee as the Prince of Big Games and Heir to the Throne of Schilling when his entire career has been a textbook example of inconsistency. Halladay's career has been one of steady excellence, and there's no reason to think that he'll suddenly lose his stuff when he takes the mound during the playoffs.

From a more broad perspective, the Phillies made a good decision. Halladay is simply better than Lee, and that was one of the few opportunities they had to improve. They already had an excellent lineup - I'm not a big Ryan Howard fan, but only seven men have ever had more 45 home run seasons, and the guy is only 30 - that can probably go toe-to-toe with the mighty Yankees. Their only deficiency was third-base, and they solved that with the Polanco signing. Their bullpen is suspect, but relief pitchers aren't exactly predictable even in the best of circumstances, and it's not like you're going to find a single team in baseball that would feel comfortable trading away a good reliever. If they hadn't pulled the trigger to replace Lee with the superior Halladay, they'd have just treaded water.

The Phillies are good enough to win the National League East even without Halladay. Hanley Ramirez is versatile, but I don't think he can throw 200 innings. Jason Bay is a pretty good slugger, but he won't keep the Mets' rotation healthy. Atlanta is the most serious threat - I really like Tommy Hanson and Brian McCann - but the Phillies have simply too much firepower, and they've got enough depth in the starting rotation to stave off the Braves' largely uninspiring regulars. But winning the division isn't the point. It's all about the World Series. They weren't good enough to win it last year, and unless they wanted to pin their hopes on Placido Polanco, they had an obligation to improve when the opportunity presented itself. If I'm a Phillies fan, I've got to be happy with the team's attitude.