NL East
1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. New York
4. Florida
5. Washington
This is a division that is potentially loaded. Philadelphia is the closest thing you'll find to a sure-thing, and I think they balance arguably the division's best staff with arguably baseball's best lineup. Atlanta has a starting rotation that could be scary good, but McCann needs help; even Albert Pujols would have trouble producing runs with that group. The Mets are the Mets, Florida is too dependent on young pitching to overcome an iffy lineup , and it's just one year early to call for a surprise Nationals run, something I tentatively plan to do next March.
(Side-note: Nats star Ryan Zimmerman and Rays stud Evan Longoria are ludicrously similar. Last year they had respective lines of .292/.364/.525 and .281/.364/.526. Both hit 33 home runs. Both have glittering defensive reputations backed up by the stats. Considering that some people think Longoria is fast overtaking A-Rod as the game's top man at the hot corner, Zimmerman deserves some love, too. After all, they're practically twins.)
NL Central
1. St. Louis
2. Chicago
3. Houston
4. Cincinnati
5. Milwaukee
6. Pittsburgh
This division has too many teams with playoff upside (in addition to having too many teams, period). Like most, I expect St. Louis to win the division, as they have the best player in the league and a good supporting cast with guys like Holliday, Molina, and the exciting young Rasmus, and they have good-to-great starting pitching. I'm probably ranking Chicago too high, but I'm a big fan of the corner infield combo of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, and they've got a rotation that could be sneaky good. I'm giving Houston points because Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Oswalt aren't done yet, and there are some young talents like Hunter Pence that could make a run. If any team is going to steal this division from St. Louis, the Astros might have the best chance. Cincy has a potentially deadly staff, but Joey Votto is only allowed to hit once every nine batters. Milwaukee might deserve better than this, but it's a tough division and it's got a very iffy pitching staff. Two great mashers, Fielder and Braun, can't win more than 75 games without help. Pittsburgh will continue to be everybody's Quadruple-A team, although I love Andrew McCutchen.
NL West
1. Los Angeles
2. Colorado (Wild Card)
3. San Francisco
4. Arizona
5. San Diego
The Dodgers have a great young hitting corps and some fine pitchers, so they'll make it three in a row. I wanted to put Arizona at number two and potentially the wild card, but they'll need Webb in order to create the game's best one-two punch with Haren. They've got good young hitters, but Webb's health is too big a concern. Colorado has a Cy Young contender in Jimenez (people still get scared by Coors, but the humidor has mellowed it a lot) and some awesome young players in Tulowitzki and Seth Smith, so I think they're the wild card favorite going in, and could push the Dodgers. San Francisco has one of the league's best one-two starting combos in Lincecum and Cain, but Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval is their only hitter who seems to understand the concept of offense. San Diego has a similar situation, but they substitute bad pitching for good pitching. And if you've got bad pitching in Petco, you deserve last place.
AL East
1. New York
2. Boston (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay
4. Baltimore
5. Toronto
This will again be baseball's most cutthroat division, as we could be looking at three 90-win teams. The Yankees will score oodles of runs and their pitching is good enough. (Funny thing about the Yankees: Rodriguez is the only guy who even might be baseball's best at his position, and yet this is a lineup that could score 900 runs.) Boston will probably do a better job at run prevention than anyone else in the baseball, as their staff is loaded and their defense excellent. They'll be about as good offensively as they were last year - and that's pretty good - and they'll be right in the thick of the best in the Majors discussion all year long. I gave the edge to the Yankees because they can handle an injury to their lineup better than Boston can, and pitching is always the hardest thing to count on. I think both teams get in the playoffs, though. Tampa has loads of talented youngsters, but you're better off banking on the established stars in the Northeast. Baltimore may have two of the division's top three outfielders in Markakis and Jones, and a wonderful catcher in Wieters, but too many pieces have to fall into place for them to make a run at more than .500. Toronto is rebuilding, which is unfortunate for studs like Adam Lind.
AL Central
1. Minnesota
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Cleveland
5. Kansas City
The loss of closer extraordinaire Joe Nathan really hurts the Twins - you ain't replacing 65+ superb innings at the drop of a hat - but Ron Gardenhire will do what he always does: pull wins out from a magical top hat. It also helps when you've got lineup talents like Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, and Span and you play in a relatively weak division. I like Detroit's starting pitching an awful lot - though I have a problem with young Max Scherzer I'll be writing about soon - and Miggy Cabrera is a wonderful masher. You'll be hard pressed to find a lineup more dependent on the long ball than Chicago, but they're in a good park for it and have a potentially good rotation. Cleveland has Grady Sizemore and that's about it, but somehow it will continue to outperform the lowly Royals. The weird thing about the Royals is they have three remarkable youngsters in Greinke, Soria, and Butler (and a solid one in Alberto Callapso), and yet they are so terribly bad everywhere else that it doesn't matter. Royals fans must comfort themselves with the knowledge that their three stars will make some fantasy baseball players very happy.
AL West
1. Texas
2. Seattle
3. Los Angeles
4. Oakland
This is a very intriguing race, as three teams are very much in the mix and the fourth has tremendous potential. They could all end up within ten games of each other, which would be remarkable. I'm picking Texas to win because they've got better balance than any other team in this division. They still scored runs despite injuries and bad luck last year, and they should easily be the division's best run producer. They've also got a deep rotation that's got enough talent that some of it will do well, and they've got such a great farm system that they'll be able to handle injuries better than most. Seattle has a wonderful one-two in King Felix and Cliff Lee, they've got a great defense, and while offense is a concern, guys like Franklin Gutierrez and Jose Lopez are much better than they're given credit for. The Angels really don't deserve this third-place listing, but I just can't see them scoring 883 runs again, and they have neither an ace nor a stopper in the bullpen. Oakland has too many ifs, but they've got some young talents who could be very productive.
NL MVP
Albert Pujols will be the league's best player - does that even need to be said? - but I really think the writers will try to get some variety unless Pujols wins that Triple Crown he's been threatening. If the Phillies establish themselves clearly as the National League's best team, Chase Utley will have that going for him, but Matt Kemp might well hit .300, pull off the magical 30-30 homers and steals feat, and win a Gold Glove playing center field for the big-time Los Angeles Dodgers. That's why he's my pick.
AL MVP
Much like the National League, there really shouldn't be any doubt about who the best player actually is: Joe Mauer. I think he's got an excellent chance at repeating, especially since he's now got the "led his team to the the playoffs despite major injury to star player" thing going for him. There are other contenders, though. Anybody in Boston or New York, obviously, but I rather like Ian Kinsler to win. He was badly unlucky last year, hitting just .253 due to his ridiculously low batting average on balls in play. That stat usually corrects itself, and Bill James projects that he'll hit 27 home runs, drive in 106 runs, bat .275, and steal 28 bases. Considering he plays very good defense at a premium position and could be the leader on a division-winning club, I like his odds. As a Sox fan and Pedroia nut, it pains me to write all that. (Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler, Cano ... these are some awesome second baseman we have nowadays.)
NL Cy Young
We may have a Randy Johnson-type stranglehold on the Cy Young developing for ol' Tim Lincecum - a great player that I've never much liked, unfortunately - even though Dan Haren is awfully close to being that division's best pitcher. In addition to those two, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, and Ubaldo Jimenez are also contenders. I'll give the edge to Halladay on the premise that he'll get a healthy bump due to the weaker National League lineups and probably snag 20 wins when you combine that potent lineup with his admirable ability to go deep into games.
AL Cy Young
Zack Greinke is my personal pick for best pitcher in the Major Leagues, and I have little doubt that he'll have another great season for that terrible franchise in the great town of Kansas City. However, I just can't see the writers going to the pitcher on a 60-win team two years in a row, no matter how awesome he is. Don't forget, these people gave the 2005 Cy Young to Bartolo Colon rather than Johan Santana. It won't be quite such a travesty though, as you've got excellent guys like Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, and C.C. Sabathia pitching for potential playoff teams. Lester will be the ace on the Major's best staff, and I expect he'll push the league lead in wins, strikeouts, and ERA, so he's my guy.
What? You didn't seriously think my picks would be completely unbiased, did you?
