Sunday, April 25, 2010

The 2010 NFL Draft - A few thoughts and the AFC East

So, Commissioner Goodell's three-day spectacle was a rousing success for at least a couple of teams. Before doing a quick team-by-team look, let's hit a couple of bullet points:
  • I'm not a fan of drafting a quarterback with the first overall pick - if you're picking first, there's a pretty darn good chance you'll get the kid killed - but I think Sam Bradford is about as good a prospect as you'll find. Living in Oklahoma, I got a chance to see him play and he's got the single most important physical tool: accuracy. He does throw a good deep ball, but the 10-yard routes are what keep the chains moving, and he throws those beautifully. He gets great touch on his passes - he can zip it in when he has to, but he knows that sometimes that's not the best play - and he's demonstrated the ability to read defenses and go through progressions. Some people say he's a product of a good offensive line, and while it certainly helped, it's incredibly easy to find highlights where he's hung in the pocket and taken shots or made an accurate throw on the run. Sam's also a good, smart guy who doesn't need the spotlight, so when it's all said and done, he's as good a pick as a quarterback selection ever can be.
  • I'm surprised that Bradford's fellow Sooner Trent Williams was the first tackle taken, going number 4 to Washington. The guy's definitely got the physical tools to be a great player, but there's a couple thoughts in my mind. He was only a right tackle on Oklahoma's best offensive line (which was also one of the best offensive lines in college football history), and the left tackle on that line, Phil Loadholt, was drafted in the mid-second round last year and is unlikely to ever protect the blindside. Also: he's the guy who got beat during the BYU game when Bradford was injured. He had a fine collegiate career and I hope he was a fine professional career, but there's a reason that Oklahoma State's Russell Okung was rated the top tackle for almost the entire Draft Season. I think that the draft gurus and the personnel men just like tinkering with the boards ... sometimes you get it right the first time, fellas.
  • Oakland's gotten an unfair rep for making poor draft choices. Sure, the Darrius Heyward-Bey selection was an awful pick, especially with Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin still on the board, but rare is the team that doesn't make stupid picks from time-to-time. You hear the 2004 Robert Gallery pick get slammed ... well, I'm sorry, but every single pundit loved that pick at the time, and that's the standard you should use. You hear the Russell pick get slammed, but, again, people loved him. Now, the Raiders don't always draft conventionally, but they haven't had any more busts than normal, the worst ones were the consensus 'smart' picks, and they've made a couple good choices, too (2003 first rounder Nmandi Asomugha is the best cornerback in the league, for instance). I say all this because the Raiders had a universally-acclaimed excellent draft, and I don't want you to expect any "surprising competency" jokes.
So, those thoughts were the ones bouncing around. I'm going to go a division at a time over the next week and provide team-by-team thoughts. We'll start with the AFC East.

Bills: I'm not crazy about the C.J. Spiller pick. I think people marked him up for being the cream of a mediocre crop of running backs, and while position scarcity should factor into any decision, it shouldn't override the fact that Spiller had 20 carries in a game only 5 times in 52 games at Clemson. I smell Reggie Bush, and that's not a guy you should take when you've got good tackles in Bryan Bulaga and Anthony Davis still there. They didn't address the o-line until the third day, and their second round pick of defensive tackle Torell Troup was a terrible reach. Guys rated around him were picked many rounds later, and Terrence Cody, Linval Joseph, and Lamarr Houson were still available. A couple nice late picks (Kyle Calloway) don't make up for those stretchy early picks.

Dolphins: They focused heavily on defense (7 of 8), and I think they did a fair job of it. I like trading down in the first round to recoup the second round pick they lost in the Brandon Marshall trade, and the players they got out of it are plenty good. Jared Odrick is a good defensive tackle who will be an effective starter from day one, and they picked up a couple of pass rushing threats in Koa Misi and Chris McCoy. I like taking developmental guys in the middle rounds, and offensive lineman John Jerry is a talented guy. Their other picks are hard-working guys who should at least contribute on special teams. All in all, Miami did a good job.

Patriots: As usual, the Pats had a million picks. First rounder Devin McCourty wasn't my favorite corner available, but he's hardly a bad pick. The Pats also landed two of the top tight ends in the draft in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and two great Florida defenders in Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes. They added depth to both their lines, a decent punter, and a talented backup (and maybe even replacement four or five years from now) for Tom Brady in Zac Robinson. I saw him at Oklahoma State, and I like his abilities. Overall, New England got good players at good values ... and they got lots of them.

Jets: With just four picks, these guys were the Anti-Patriots, and probably happy to bear the title. Kyle Wilson might have been the second-best cornerback in the draft behind Joe Haden, so he was a good value at 29. Their defense was strong last year, and Wilson could be the league's best nickel back next season; the Jets will be very tough to pass on, and that's a great way to win games in the modern NFL. Second rounder Vlad Ducasse is talented, though he might end up playing guard rather than tackle at the next level, and the Jets have the offensive line depth that they don't need to play him before he's ready. I like USC running back Joe McKnight (especially in the 4th round) as a complement to Shonn Greene. He's got a reputation as a scat back, though he's a better inside runner than folks give him credit for, and he can immediately contribute. Fullback John Conner, in addition to being mankind's savior, is a physical player who fits right in with the Jets power game. The Fightin' Ryans had few picks, but they did pretty well with them.

Tomorrow: The AFC North and South.

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